DMK OR AIADMK? With most exit polls predicting a close finish, there is no clear favourite

Whether the winner is the DMK or the AIADMK, there is history to be made in Tamil Nadu on Thursday.

While AIADMK chief Jayalalithaa hopes to break the anti-incumbency curse and become the first Chief Minister to win two consecutive elections since 1984, a victory for the DMK would mean its president M. Karunanidhi would take over the top post for a record sixth time.

A victory to the alternative fronts, though looks extremely remote, would mean the end of a nearly five-decades-long rule of the two Dravidian parties.

With all but one exit poll predicting a neck-and-neck race, the two Dravidian camps maintained a stoic silence in anticipation of the verdict.

Despite the exit polls, majority of which gave a slight edge to the DMK front, the AIADMK sources expressed confidence of a major victory citing the voting pattern. An AIADMK MP said women have voted more as also the rural population. “Women and villagers are our core vote bank. Since they have come out in large numbers and voted, we are sure to win,” the leader said.

For the first time, more women than men had cast their votes in the Assembly elections (about four lakh more).

The numbers game

The DMK side has its own theory on the numbers. “You are seeing more women voting because the prohibition issue has struck a chord with them. We will benefit from the women vote. Also, anti-incumbency does not differentiate between urban and rural in Tamil Nadu,” said a senior DMK leader.

The current election was also unique in the sense the AIADMK front contested all 234 seats on its ‘Two Leaves’ symbol.

The clinching factor could also be the performance of the DMDK led six-party front and the PMK, which have contested all 234 constituencies. But the two Dravidian parties have maintained that a multi-cornered contest would be to the disadvantage of the other.

No hung Assembly?

That the exit polls, without exception, have shown an improvement for the DMK compared to the opinion polls conducted a month ago is being cited by party leaders as a clear sign of anti-incumbency build up. Both camps though are categorical that Tamil Nadu will not throw up a hung Assembly.

The results would be crucial to the immediate political future of DMDK president Vijayakant. Having aligned with the AIADMK in 2011, he went back to the plank of an alternative this time, hoping to cash in on perceived disenchantment with the two Dravidian parties among young votes. If a hung Assembly does materialise, Mr. Vijayakant could turn out to be the ‘kingmaker’.

It would also be a vital day for PMK and its chief ministerial candidate Anbumani Ramadoss, who ran an almost two-year campaign this time. Whether he would resign from his MP post and enter the Assembly in case of a win in Pennagaram remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the BJP hopes to elect an MLA for the first time since 2001.